Friday 9 January 2015

Facts and Statistics about False Rape Claims - A Primer

I am tired of reading misinformation, dishonest statistics, and outright lies about false rape claims.
So I am writing this to give the facts on false rape claims - I will not write any opinions to the best of my ability, but strictly facts.
Feel free to share this with others in any discussion about false rape claims, in order to clear up misinformation.
Skip to the bottom for a TLDR, sources will be in the main text body.
A. Only 2% of rape claims are false!
Although there are no exact statistics on false rape claims, it is at least 5-8%. One study done by a feminist lauded for his earlier work on campus rapists, found a 5.9% false claim rate. That study also discusses several other studies.
B. So that means over 90% of rape claims are true - why focus on false claims?
That is not the case. An illustration from the previous source:
Of the 136 cases of sexual assault 8 (5.9%) were coded as false reports, 61 (44.9%) did not proceed to any prosecution or disciplinary action, 48 (35.3%) were referred for prosecution or disciplinary action, and 19 (13.9%) contained insufficient information to be coded (see Table 2).
There is a small minority of claims that we can be reasonably sure are false. There is a slightly less small minority of claims that we can be reasonably sure are true. The vast majority fall into a grey area, that we do not know whether they are true or false.
In other words, it is just as false to say "Only 6% of rape claims are proven false, so the rest are true" as it is to say "Only 10-15% of rape claims are proven true and result in conviction, so the rest are false."
C. The 6% figure includes mistaken accusations, where the accuser was raped but mistakenly accused the wrong person. The real false claim rate is much lower.
The 6% figure does not include mistaken accusations.
Moreover, commencing in 1989 in cases of rape and rape-murder where there has already been either arrest or an indictment, the FBI has conducted large numbers of DNA tests “to confirm or exclude the person. In 25 percent of the cases where they can get a result, they excluded the primary suspect.”
D. The 6% figure includes false negatives.
In fact:
To classify a case as a false allegation, a thorough investigation must yield evidence that a crime did not occur.
“Evidence that the assault did not happen” might include, for example, physical evidence and/or statements from credible witnesses that contradict key aspects of a victim’s account. Such evidence would be distinct from more general “credibility” evidence, for example, a delayed report; an apparent inconsistency in the victim’s statement
It is not impossible that a rape claim was indeed true, yet classified as false. But there also have been documented 1 2 cases of rape convictions that have ultimately ended in exoneration and proof that the claim was false (not merely mistaken, but false).
E. Most rape claims, true or false, do not result in conviction. Therefore, false rape claims are not as serious and harmful as rape.
It is a logical certainty that the worst and rarest cases of false claims - ones that result in imprisonment and rape in prison - are worse than rape. But one need not be convicted to face serious harm.
One redditor describes their story:
I didn't go outside for six months after that one. People are so fucking funny. I mean, I dropped out of college, I still have anxiety six years later and it severely fucked up my entire life but, really, good fucking joke.
If you were told the poster was talking about being the victim of either rape, or a false rape claim, it would be difficult to determine which without context.
Consider the case of Sean Lanigan, a teacher who was accused of molestation with the claim later being shown false:
Police issued a press release with Lanigan’s booking photo and home address, and the school district sent home a letter about his arrest.
You can imagine what happened to his career.
It is unusual for false rape claims to result in conviction. It is not unusual for false rape claims to result in serious harm to the victim, whether it be emotional, financial, or even physical harm.
It is important to note that even unofficial false rape claims to friends, family, employer, school etc. - which are not recorded in statistics - can result in serious harm to the victim.
F. MRAs want rape accusers to be prosecuted for false claims if they cannot prove they were raped.
MRAs want proven false rape accusers to be punished harshly, to deter false rape claims. That does not mean that any rape accusation which fails to result in conviction will trigger a prosecution for a false rape claim. This persistent myth is a strawman, seemingly spread to bash MRAs.
G. False rape claims occur at the same rate of other crimes.
I have seen many, many people make this claim. I even once saw someone claim
In contrast to rape's 6-8% false accusation rate, most other crimes have a 15-20% false accusation rate.
Not one person has ever provided a source - because no such source exists (to my knowledge).
The only source I have seen that compares false claim rates is this:
The “unfounded” rate, or percentage of complaints determined through investigation to be false, is higher for forcible rape than for any other Index crime. Eight percent of forcible rape complaints in 1996 were “unfounded,” while the average for all Index crimes was 2 percent.
It is true their classification of unfounded is not the same as proven false - but this is only the source that compares apples to apples (the unfounded rate of rape, and the unfounded rate of average all other crimes).
H. Most rapes do not result in conviction, due to lack of evidence or lack of a report. We should focus on rape, not false rape claims.
Rape victims have a variety of resources that they can avail on for help. Rape crisis centres, hotlines, counselling centres, etc. There is a lot of government money dedicated for helping victims of rape. In England, the government even pays rape victims 11 thousand quid as a standard (they pay most victims of crime - but false rape claim victims get no money).
In contrast, victims of false rape claims have close to nothing. Community of the Wrongly Accused is the only group I know that aims to help victims of false rape claims.
(The Innocence Project - a laudable organization - aims to exonerate all innocent people convicted of crimes, and are not focused on helping false rape claim victims)
We as a society can - and in my opinion, should - help victims of both rape, and false rape claims.
It helps no one - save false rape accusers - to marginalize or deny the existence and significance of false rape claims as an issue.
TLDR:
  • At least 6% of rape claims are false
  • The vast majority of rape claims are unknown whether they are true or false
  • The 6% figure does not include mistaken accusations where the accuser was raped but named the wrong defendant
  • The 6% figure only includes those cases where there is strong proof it was false
  • False rape claims often result in serious harm, even the ones that do not end in conviction
  • Punishing false accusers does not mean that a genuine rape accuser would be prosecuted if they could not prove they were raped
  • False rape claims are 4x more common than false claims of other crimes
  • Rape victims receive a lot of help, but false rape claim victims receive virtually none - this should be changed.
 http://www.reddit.com/r/MensRights/comments/1o74n7/facts_and_statistics_about_false_rape_claims_a/
 

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